PhD, Professor A. G. Batalov¹
O.O. Bakulina^2
1Russian State University of Physical Education, Sport, Youth and Tourism (SCOLIPE), Moscow
²Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University), Moscow

Abstract
Objective of the study was to forecast individual competitive/ technical progress of the national elite cross-country skiers in the top-ranking international events.
Methods and structure of the study. We analyzed the long-term progress statistics of the national elite cross-country skiers to profile the competitive speed in the men’s 10km/ 15km/ 50km and women’s 5km/ 10km/ 30km cross-country skiing classic and freestyle events, with the comparative and regression analyses – to offer regression equations; forecast the competitive technical performances in the upcoming Olympic season and potential competitive accomplishments in the individual races and mass-start events of the Beijing Olympics.
Results and conclusion. The average competitive technical progress of the men's group was estimated at 0.4% and 0.3% and women’s group at 0.39% and 0.6% per year in the freestyle and classic events, respectively. We used the progress statistics to develop the competitive technical progress forecasts for the current macro-cycle and individual competitive performance forecasts for the individual and mass-start events of the 2020 Olympics in Beijing.

Keywords: elite cross-country skiers, long-term competitive/ technical progress, regression analysis, progress forecast in cross-country skiing

References

1. Bakulina O.O., Batalov A.G. Multidimensional dynamic of sports and technical results in cross-country skiing. Extreme human activity. 2014. No.3 (32). pp. 75-78.
2. Bakulina O.O., Batalov A.G. Ekvivalentnost sportivnykh rezultatov v lykzhnykh gonkakh [Equivalence of sports results in cross-country skiing]. Aktualnye voprosy fizicheskogo vospitaniya i sporta [Topical issues of physical education and sports]. All-Russian scientific-methodical and res.-practical conference. MSSU. M. 2014. pp. 327-333.
3. Batalov A.G. Modelno-tselevoy sposob postroeniya sportivnoy podgotovki vyisokokvalifitsirovannykh sportsmenov v zimnikh tsiklicheskih vidakh sporta [Model-target method of building sports training of elite winter cyclic athletes]. Teoriya i praktika fizicheskoy kultury. 2001. No. 3. P. 23.
4. Batalov A.G., Spiridonov K.N., Khramov N.A. Tablitsy ekvivalentnykh rezultatov v lyzhnykh gonkakh [Cross-country skiing equivalent tables]. M.: Fizkultura i sport publ., 1999. 503 p.