Athletic progress modeling tools to forecast individual competitive performance with training trends, provisions and approaches


Dr.Hab., Professor T.V. Skoblikova1
PhD, Associate Professor E.V. Skripleva1, 2
1Southwestern State University, Kursk
2Kursk State Agricultural Academy named after I.I. Ivanov, Kursk

Objective of the study was to analyze benefits of the modern athletic progress modeling tools to forecast individual competitive performance with their trends, provisions and approaches.
Methods and structure of the study. We used a system analysis; design/ modeling methods; and analyses of the best national and international experiences to model an athletic training system based on the sports performance theory.
Results and conclusion. Modern sports training systems with their training service evolution trends demonstrate a growing variability of the multidimensional process conditions. We believe that the process factors need to be well prioritized and analyzed to design a progress model so as to forecast competitive performance on a strategic and specific basis. For this purpose, we made resort to the expert modeling philosophy in application to competitive performance viewed as a socio-cultural phenomenon. Such an approach appears beneficial for the subject positioning in the general sports theory. We consider competitive performance as an integral polymodal subject based on the relevant theoretical and practical provisions; with a hierarchical cluster analysis demonstrating its three-tier structure. The competitive performance modeling implies every natural relationship and correlation of the competitive performance components being revealed and analyzed to find their inputs (ratios) in the single- and multi-level process characteristics. Such modeling exercise is recommended for application on a sport-specific basis to have it prudently customized to the actual specifics of a sport discipline.

Keywords: modeling, sports, competitive performance, model benchmarks, competitive success.

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