Development of a mathematical model for predicting the maximum oxygen consumption of football players

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Dr. Biol., Professor S.P. Levushkin1
PhD M.S. Fesenko1
G.K. Chilingaryan1
PhD E.M. Kalinin1
1The Russian University of Sport «GTSOLIFK», Moscow

Objective of the study is to develop a mathematical model for predicting maximum oxygen consumption (MOC) of football players aged 15-17 based on anthropometric and functional indicators using machine learning methods.
Methods and structure of the study. To build a prognostic model, a set of anthropometric indicators (body length and weight, thickness of skin and fat folds, body composition), heart rate variability parameters (HR, SI, TP, HF, LF, IC, PARS), as well as (systolic and diastolic blood pressure) were preliminarily determined. MOC was measured by the direct method when performing a maximum load test using a gas analyzer. Five machine learning algorithms have been tested. The developed mathematical model based on linear regression makes it possible to predict the MOC of football players with a fairly high degree of accuracy.
Results and conclusions. During the development, five different machine learning algorithms were tested to predict MOC in football players based on a set of anthropometric and functional indicators, and a comparative analysis of the algorithms was carried out. A mathematical model based on the use of a linear regression algorithm allows predicting the maximum oxygen consumption of football players with high accuracy (R²=0,78; MAE=3,1 ml/kg/min), which meets the prediction criteria in sports physiology and can be used for practical application in the training process.

Keywords: maximum oxygen consumption, football players, machine learning, linear regression, predictive model, anthropometric and functional indicators.

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