Physical education and sports sector specialists: supply and demand situation analysis and forecast

PhD, Associate Professor S.A. Vorobyev1
PhD, Associate Professor M.Y. Shchennikova3
PhD, Associate Professor N.A. Breider1, 2
M.S. Mairygin1
A.N. Shchennikov1, 3
1Saint Petersburg Research Institute of Physical Culture, Saint Petersburg
2Russian State Hydrometeorological University, St. Petersburg
3Lesgaft National State University of Physical Education, Sport and Health, St. Petersburg

Corresponding author: skorobey64@mail.ru

Abstract

Objective of the study was to analyze the national physical education and sport sector progress in the context of the federal and regional physical education and sports human resource supply and demand statistics to offer the physical education and sports human resource flow monitoring and forecast model.

Methods and structure of the study. We used for the purposes of the study the tradional theoretical research methods, comparative analysis of the governmental statistical reports 1-FC for 2012-2019, linear regression based forecasts, and a trend analysis with extrapolations. When developing our physical education and sports human resource flow monitoring and forecast model, we gave a special priority to systematic comprehensive analyses of the current progress trends, physical education and sports progress strategy implementation benchmarks and analysis of the physical education and sports human resource supply and demand situation in the context of the sector progress goals.

A systematic approach implies compliance of the key requirements to a data processing system, including: relevance, scalability, progress opportunities, integrity, practical benefits, multilevel design, permanent operation, and visualized presentation of the present situation and progress forecasts; with the monitoring data, reports and analyses being fully accessible for every user as provided by the valid information security codes; and with the regional progress analysis and comparisons, clear structured and coordinated project activities.

In our analysis of the governmental statistical reports, we used standard economic and mathematical modeling methods and correlation analysis to forecast the physical education and sports specialists’ supply and demand situations in the federation and regions.

Results and conclusion. Our analysis of the key physical education and sport sector progress trends with the human resource supply and demand statistics for 2012-2019 found the following:

• The trainees-per-trainer ratio in the physical education and sport sector needs to be stabilized to meet the valid federal physical education and sport service standards in terms of group numbers and training schedules and the federal regulations on additional paraprofessional physical education and sport specialist training curricula;

• The physical education and sport specialist supply lags far behind the demand (as demonstrated by the fast growth of the habitually sporting population in every region and physical education and sports domain, including the corporate physical education and sports, clientele of the public sports facilities and other sports organizations.

Regional physical education and sports staff growth forecasts from the relevant governmental agencies – based on the general labor resource accounting and balancing data ignoring the physical education and sports clientele growth forecast that gives 70% growth by 2030 – fail to fairly rate and predict the human resource demand in the physical education and sport sector. Therefore, we recommend the efforts to keep the trainees-to-trainee ratio reasonable and effective being facilitated by the theoretically grounded research with the physical education and sport specialists’ supply and demand control recommendations by regions, places of residence and corporate physical education and sport service providers.

Keywords: physical education and sports human resource supply, specialist demand, statistical reports, analytical system, monitoring, forecast.

Background. As required by the national physical education and sports sector development and staffing strategies with a special priority to the human resource supply for the sector and sports medicine, further specialist training for the physical education and sports sector will be improved based on the human resource supply and deman situation monitoring, analyses and forecasts, to secure the sector being fully staffed by modern competent and skillful human resource [3]. The physical education and sports human resource demand and supply statistics will help keep the decision-makers timely informed on the labor market progress trends and other relevant processes, with a special attention to the regional physical education and sports human resource supply and demand situations in need of special staffing decisions to attain the sector progress goals.

Objective of the study was to analyze the national physical education and sports sector progress in the context of the federal and regional physical education and sports human resource supply and demand statistics to offer the physical education and sports human resource flow monitoring and forecast model.

Methods and structure of the study. We used for the purposes of the study the tradional theoretical research methods, comparative analysis of the governmental statistical reports 1-FC for 2012-2019, linear regression based forecasts, and a trend analysis with extrapolations. When developing our physical education and sports human resource flow monitoring and forecast model, we gave a special priority to systematic comprehensive analyses of the current progress trends, physical education and sports progress strategy implementation benchmarks and analysis of the physical education and sports human resource supply and demand situation in the context of the sector progress goals.

A systematic approach implies compliance of the key requirements to a data processing system, including: relevance, scalability, progress opportunities, integrity, practical benefits, multilevel design, permanent operation, and visualized presentation of the present situation and progress forecasts; with the monitoring data, reports and analyses being fully accessible for every user as provided by the valid information security codes; and with the regional progress analysis and comparisons, clear structured and coordinated project activities [1].

In our analysis of the governmental statistical reports, we used standard economic and mathematical modeling methods and correlation analysis to forecast the physical education and sports specialists’ supply and demand situations in the federation and regions [2, 4].

Results and discussion. As was found by the key physical education and sports sector progress reports, the physical education and sports sector cllientele growth pace is much faster than the physical education and sports specialist inflow in the sector. Thus the federal statistical reports of 2012-2019 show the total clientele growing by 82% versus physical education and sports sector staff growing by only 22% for this period. This means that the average number of trainees served by every physical education and sports specialist (trainees-to-trainer ratio, tranees-to-trainee ratio) has grown from 97 to 148 as provided by the federal statistical reports, with the similar growth trends reported by regions. Leading in the growth statistics are the Central, Volga and North Caucasis regions that report the average tranees-to-trainee ratio at up to 170 people.

On the one hand, this growth may be interpreted as indicative of the physical education and sports human resource labor productivity growth; and on the other hand, the national sports training and advancement system reports the average number of trainees-per-trainer standing unchanged at 39 for the last five years. The corporate physical education and sports system (industries, organizations etc.), however, report 590 habitually sporting people per trainer as of 2019, that means that this number has grown up by 260 since 2012 – and no doubt that one trainer can unlikely serve such clientele.

Our analysis of the regional vacancies in the physical education and sports system for the study period found the sector staffing being virtually independent on the formally declared vacancies. Thus the federal statistics give 2% of the vacant positions for the period.

We analyzed the reported physical education and sports specialist’s clientele and payroll variation statistics by regions (Figure 1) to find the economic benefits being uneven across the regions. Note that the peaks on the payroll variation curve appear being due to some contingencies – often falling in conflict with the sector progress logics. On the whole, our analysis of the statistical reports 1-FC data demonstated that forecasts of the human resource demand situation in the sector cannot be good enough unless grounded by the regional progress factors and progress trend analyses. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the statistical reports forms make it virtually impossible to forecast the physical education and sports sector demand on a detailed basis, by the key trades and qualifications.

Figure 1. Average physical education and sport specialist’s payroll variation in 2012-2019

Furthermore, the physical education and sports human resource demand forecasts need to proceed from the assumption that the physical education and sports sector clientele in the coutnry is expected to grow to 33 million for the period of 2020 to 2030 – in excess of the reported 2012-2019 growth trend. Given on Figure 2 hereunder is the physical education and sports sector staff shortage forecast – versus the tranees-to-trainee ratio – if the last five-year growth trend will stay. The trend line predicts further fast growth of tranees-to-trainee ratio although there should be some limit otherwise the human resource service efficiency/ quality will inevitably fall to undermine progress of the sector and further inflow of skilled human resource.  

Figure 2. Physical education and sports sector clientele and human resource growth forecast based on the 2012-2019 statistics

We have every reason to expect that further growth of demand for the physical education and sport service, unless timely and fully met by supply of the trained physical education and sports specialists, will result in the fast deterioration of the service quality and safety standards. Should the trainees-per-trainer ratio stay at 160 till 2030 (that is very unlikely), the physical education and sport sector will need at least 245 thousand specialists more than now.

Conclusion. Our analysis of the key physical education and sports sector progress trends with the human resource supply and demand statistics for 2012-2019 found the following:

• The trainees-per-trainer ratio in the physical education and sports sector needs to be stabilized to meet the valid federal physical education and sport service standards in terms of group numbers and training schedules and the federal regulations on additional paraprofessional physical education and sport specialist training curricula;

• The physical education and sport specialist supply lags far behind the demand (as demonstrated by the fast growth of the habitually sporting population in every region and physical education and sports domain, including the corporate physical education and sports, clientele of the public sports facilities and other sports organizations.

Regional physical education and sport staff growth forecasts from the relevant governmental agencies – based on the general labor resource accounting and balancing data ignoring the physical education and sports clientele growth forecast that gives 70% growth by 2030 – fail to fairly rate and predict the human resource demand in the physical education and sport sector. Therefore, we recommend the efforts to keep the trainees-to-trainee ratio reasonable and effective being facilitated by the theoretically grounded research with the physical education and sport specialists’ supply and demand control recommendations by regions, places of residence and corporate physical education and sport service providers.

.References

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