Computer forecasting to reduce risk of retirement from elite sports among junior athletes

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PhD E.A. Dergach1
PhD, Associate Professor A.Yu. Osipov1, 2
Dr.Hab., Professor D.A. Zavyalov3
Dr.Hab., Associate Professor R.S. Nagovitsyn4
1Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk
2Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after Professor V.F. Voino-Yasenetsky, Krasnoyarsk
3Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V.P. Astafiev, Krasnoyarsk
4Glazov State Pedagogical Institute named after V.G. Korolenko, Glazov

Keywords: retirement from sports, young athletes, electronic support.

Introduction. Scientists have identified the problem of" loss " of promising athletes at the stage of transition of junior athletes to sports of the highest competitive achievements [1, 2]. The
purpose of the study is to reduce the risk of loss of promising young athletes during the transition of young people to sports of the highest achievements on the basis of computer forecasting using the program "FSYSS" .
Methodology and organization of the study. Participants: young (16-18 years old) young men-athletes engaged in martial arts. Observations of athletes were carried out for 3 years. At the beginning of the research, all athletes (n=108) were tested using the author's electronic educational software "FSYSS". "FSYSS" is a computer program that allows the coach to conduct a qualitative analysis of the risks that arise during the transition of juniors to adult sports. The program contains variants of questionnaires and tests for athletes that allow you to identify objective reasons for possible retirement from sports. The Ros website was created for coaches and athletes.Trener.Ru, which hosted the "FSYSS" program. Then the wrestlers were divided into groups: control – KG (n=55) and experimental EG (n=53). There was no external influence on the KG athletes. EG athletes underwent regular monthly FSYSS testing, and coaches received reliable information about the possible risks of young athletes leaving the sport. At the end of the observation cycle, the KG and EG athletes were retested. Testing revealed the total number of athletes who left the sport, and identified the main risks of leaving promising young athletes from the sport. Statistical analysis of the test data was carried out using the Wilcoxon test.
The results of the study and their discussion. In the total number of young martial artists who left the sport, a significant (p<0.01) advantage of KG wrestlers (n=26) over EG athletes (n=19) was revealed. A significant (p<0.01) discrepancy was found in the proportion of risks of young athletes leaving the sport. In the CG, the main risks of retiring from high-performance sports were indicated by athletes: a significant increase in training loads (62%), a lack of motivation to play sports (34%), and the relationship between an athlete and a coach (48%). In EG, the share of these risks is significantly lower: an increase in training loads (53%), a low level of motivation (29%), and relationships with the coach (36%). The main reasons for EG athletes to retire from high-performance sports are family problems (57%) and higher education (54%).
Conclusion. A significant (p<0.01) reduction in the risks of young athletes leaving the sport was revealed with the regular practice of using the electronic software "FSYSS"by athletes and coaches. The use of electronic software "FSYSS" in the practice of training activities allowed us to identify the main risks of losing young athletes during the transition of junior wrestlers to high-performance sports. The possibility of obtaining objective data on the risks allowed the coaches to significantly reduce the proportion of young promising martial artists who left the sport of the highest achievements.

Literature

  1. E. A. Dergach, D. A. Zavyalov, O. B. Zavyalova, The safety of the contingent during the transition of young athletes to the sport of higher achievements / E. A. Dergach, D. A. Zavyalov, O. B. Zavyalova // Bulletin of the KSPU named after V. P. Astafyev. – 2018. – № 2 (44). – Pp. 101-108.
  2. Knights S. Investigating elite end-of-athletic-career transition: A systematic review / S. Knights, E. Sherry, M. Ruddock-Hudson // Journal of Applied Sport Psychology. 2016. – № 3. – P. 291-308.