Mathematical model to predict painless decompression illness in competitive diving

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PhD V.N. Alpatov1
Dr. Med., Associate Professor V.P. Ganapolsky2
Dr. Med., Professor P.V. Rodichkin3
Postgraduate student M.V. Ganapolskaya4
1Naval Academy, St. Petersburg
2S. M. Kirov Military Medical Academy, St. Petersburg
3Herzen State Pedagogical University of Russia, St. Petersburg
4Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg

Objective of the study was to develop a model for predicting the development of painless decompression illness in divers.
Methods and structure of the study. The mathematical modeling was carried out through a discriminant analysis. We analyzed the results of intravascular gas production and pain threshold in 29 divers diagnosed with decompression illness and asymptomatic gas production, who performed immersions in the Research Institute of Rescue and Underwater Technologies, Navy's Military Educational and Scientific Center "Naval Academy" from 2007 to 2019.
Results of the study and conclusions. The study found that the incidence of asymptomatic gas production was 1.6 times higher than the clinical manifestation of decompression illness, indicating that the incidence of the illness is underestimated. The predictor of the asymptomatic flow of decompression illness is a combination of various levels of intravascular gas production and thresholds of pain sensitivity. The determination of pain thresholds in professional and competitive divers is an important element in the prevention of asymptomatic gas production and chronic decompression illness. The critical level of pain sensitivity, at which each immersion requires an ultrasonic examination for gas bubbles in the venous channel, is 11 V. For such divers, it is necessary to consider any post-decompression symptoms such as decompression illness.

Keywords: divers, decompression illness, painless form, prognosis, pain sensitivity, intravascular gas production.

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